Category: Manufacturing

THE THREE RULES OF NEGOTIATION.

These three rules of negotiation can mean the difference between your business’s success and failure.


To illustrate the power of these rules, we use the example of a simple negotiation between a small business without apparent leverage and a much larger business with immense leverage. These rules are also highly effective in transactions of much greater complexity and scope, in any industry, and with parties of differing size, interests, needs and challenges.

THE THREE RULES OF NEGOTIATION

Saul Winsten
The Winsten Group.Trusted Counsel LLC
www.thewinstengroup.com

Copyright 2018 Saul Winsten , all rights retained and reserved

These three rules of negotiation can mean the difference between your business’s success and failure.

Contracts are a means to establish and define commercial relationships, increase profitability and reduce risk. These three rules, when properly applied to contract negotiation, also can produce competitive advantage, enduring collaborative relationships, protection of intellectual property rights and business interests, and a wealth of other benefits for your organization.

To illustrate the power of these rules, we use the example of a simple negotiation between a small business without apparent leverage and a much larger business with immense leverage. These rules are also highly effective in transactions of much greater complexity and scope, in any industry, and with parties of differing size, interests, needs and challenges.

Rule One: Start with the End.

Wasn’t it Yogi Berra who said, “If you don’t know where you’re going, you’ll end up somewhere else?” He’s got something there.

Whether problem solving, negotiating a contract or resolving a dispute, you gain a decisive advantage when you begin your negotiation with the end in mind. Then build your strategy and action from there. Not taking the time up front to think through where you need to end up and how you will get there – making it up as you go along – is a mistake too often made.

Our client, a well-established EU-based business with a new USA subsidiary, designs and produces zero-defect, highly engineered products and is a Tier 1 supplier to large multinational manufacturers. It had just been selected by a much larger USA-based multinational Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) to negotiate a contract for production and supply of a component for the OEM’s engines. This OEM had earned a reputation for being tough on small suppliers. The OEM enjoyed its size, financial strength and market share, employing that clout in all negotiations. Our client knew that it would be difficult to obtain a profitable contract and retained us to assist in negotiations.

At the beginning of the process, we determined our client’s objectives, our end:
• to obtain a profitable exclusive contract for design and manufacture of highly engineered products in high volume,
• to protect our intellectual property and reduce our risk, and
• to establish and strengthen a new long-term, mutually beneficial relationship with this OEM and its affiliates.

Because our end was to build a productive long-term relationship, we approached negotiations as a collaborative problem-solving exercise, not an adversarial process with a single winner and a single loser. Every piece of correspondence, every interaction between the parties and negotiators, was intended to build trust and confidence.

Next, we identified and assessed our risks and opportunities, and strengths and weaknesses that might impact our ability to obtain the end we sought.

From there we identified our terms:
• what final terms we
needed, and why
• what terms we wanted
• how best to reach our end

Of course, need and want are very different things, not to be confused and never to be lost sight of. What we needed determined what our “walk away” points must be.

Here’s where Yogi comes in. If you don’t know what your objectives are and commit to them from the beginning, you will find yourself in negotiations being pushed or led back from one position to another. The end will be different from the one you hoped for.

Rule Two: Prepare. Prepare. Prepare.

Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese military strategist and philosopher, said that the true master of the Art of War is one who wins the battle before it has started.

Likewise, the most successful negotiations are those for which careful research and planning begin well before the formal negotiations.

Before sitting down at the negotiating table, it is essential that you thoroughly know and understand the other party, its needs and its goals. Also learn as much as you can about its playbook, the persons with whom you will negotiate and the ultimate decision makers.

When you know yourself and you know your opponent – and apply that knowledge – you gain a significant advantage.

Back to our example:
Prior to our first meeting with the OEM leaders and negotiators, we learned all we could about the other party, its business, its product needs, its sources of competitive product supply, and its processes that might involve our product. Our USA president (an established and knowledgeable engineer), European executives (also established and knowledgeable engineers) and others in the company were in regular contact with the OEM’s engineers and procurement personnel. Through industry knowledge and contacts, we gained more information about the OEM’s negotiators and decision makers, their tactics and demands in similar negotiations, as well as how the OEM treated other suppliers and their intellectual property. And, of course, we carefully reviewed the OEM’s proposed procurement agreement.

When we sat down together, it was apparent the OEM hadn’t expended much effort to learn about us or develop a strategy for this contract. The OEM had bigger deals to think about and was confident that, with its strong leverage, we would accept its demands.

Based on our research, we anticipated that at the very end of negotiations – when we, the smaller party, would happily think the deal was done – the OEM would ask for more.

Because we knew what the OEM had demanded of other suppliers, we anticipated that we would be asked to warehouse our finished product at our sole expense, with payment by the OEM only after it took possession. This consignment arrangement would produce cost savings for the OEM, but it would burden us with additional costs and risk. We also knew the OEM had existing warehousing capacity and financial resources to easily handle its own storage of small components for just-in-time use.

We determined in advance that we would not accept this last-minute demand unless we were adequately compensated. We formulated a response consistent with our advantages (the OEM could not obtain a truly competitive product at this price on this timeline) and what the OEM viewed as our weakness (our size, and eagerness to enter this contract). In this case, we were going to try to turn a perceived weakness into an advantage.

Rule Three: Pay Attention and Seize Opportunity.

Sun Tzu instructed his generals to occupy the field of battle first. In doing so, they could secure the best ground from which to wait for the opposing army’s arrival, watch its moves, and quickly adapt to those moves to achieve victory.

When you apply the first two rules, you may have a better opportunity to occupy the field of battle first. You likely are prepared for engagement before and better than the other party. Thus, you can recognize and utilize favorable opportunities that arise. Some of these opportunities might be subtle, such as cues picked up by the behavior, body language and voice of the other parties.

Turning an opportunity to our advantage:
We arrived for formal negotiations at the OEM’s mammoth headquarters and were ushered into a large conference room dominated by a long, dark table. The OEM had already placed its negotiator, multiple procurement and engineering staff, other assistants, computers and paperwork at their end of the table. We were pointed to seats at the extreme other end. Clearly, the OEM was ready for its traditional adversarial negotiations.

We were prepared to change the dynamics.

We asked to move toward their end of the table, as it would be more conducive to discussion. They agreed. Throughout that day, we worked to create a dynamic of non-adversarial negotiations, of collaborative problem solving.

We already knew a great deal about what the OEM needed to meet its goals and schedules, its current product sourcing, and its supplier challenges. We knew our product capabilities and could calculate our design and production costs to a fraction of a cent. We also had a good idea of the performance, cost and availability of competitive products. With this knowledge, we were able to meet most of the OEM’s demands on terms that also benefitted us, or propose others that were acceptable to us. Our own demands fit the OEM’s budget and were for the most part easily accommodated. Protection of our intellectual property, particularly trade secret information, was crucial for us, and we pressed our requirements until the OEM agreed.

By the end of the second day, the OEM seemed satisfied with the results of negotiations. It now had a reliable supplier of a superior, highly engineered component, in desired volume, at desired cost, with a production and delivery schedule that fit its needs. We, too, were satisfied that the negotiated contract achieved our desired end. It was a classic win-win.

As anticipated, the OEM’s general counsel made the consignment demand after all else had been agreed to. We were prepared. We did not directly reject it, nor we did accept it. Instead, we followed our prepared script. We repeated calmly and deliberately that our product was measurably superior to anything they could procure elsewhere, was at an acceptable price, and would be produced and delivered on a schedule that allowed them to fulfill their customer commitments We used our small size to our advantage, repeating that this new demand would place burdensome costs and risks on us.

Then we said nothing.

Now, you know we wanted that contract. We wanted it signed before we left the OEM’s headquarters. We did not want to risk losing this contract or this new client. In fact, our European chairman and USA president had decided in advance that if push came to shove, the consignment arrangement could be acceptable if we were appropriately compensated. The OEM of course did not know that.

The OEM’s general counsel waited for us to respond. When we did not, he cleared his throat, shifted slightly in his chair, rounded his shoulders a bit and looked down. His voice was softer and of a different pitch when he said, “Well, that’s our final offer.”

It just didn’t look or sound like a final, take-it-or-leave-it demand. It looked like an opportunity for us to seize.

Our company chairman was tired. He began to shift in his seat and was about to speak. He later confirmed that he was about to accept their demand. However, at the last second, he took the cue to wait. He said nothing.

The silence following the “final offer” could not have lasted more than a few seconds. Our chairman thought it seemed longer.

Then the OEM negotiator sighed. “Well, okay. No consignment,” he said.

We all shook hands.

Deal done.

It was the single most profitable agreement ever obtained by our multinational client in its long history.

Saul Winsten is General Counsel of The Winsten Group.Trusted Counsel, LLC a leading legal, strategic and corporate affairs firm. He has served as General Counsel, executive, and trusted outside counsel of US and multinational businesses, non-profit organizations, and strategic alliances. Saul has also served with distinction as a member and leader of Boards of Directors.

*The Three Rules article above was excerpted and adapted from speeches, workshops, and presentations provided to leaders, lawyers, Boards of Directors, senior executive groups, business groups, trade associations and others.

McKinsey on Disruptive Technology-Driven Change In The Automotive Industry.

McKinsey Dec 2016
Shared previously on LinkedIn:

“Technology-driven trends will revolutionize how industry players respond to changing consumer behavior, develop partnerships, and drive transformational change.”
You will note that some of the strategic issues raised, are similar to issues being faced by manufacturers of other complex products.The ability to recognize and effectively respond to these issues will be of increasing concern and value.

Today’s economies are dramatically changing, triggered by development in emerging markets, the accelerated rise of new technologies, sustainability policies, and changing consumer preferences around ownership. Digitization, increasing automation, and new business models have revolutionized other industries, and automotive will be no exception. These forces are giving rise to four disruptive technology-driven trends in the automotive sector: diverse mobility, autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity.

Most industry players and experts agree that the four trends will reinforce and accelerate one another, and that the automotive industry is ripe for disruption. Given the widespread understanding that game-changing disruption is already on the horizon, there is still no integrated perspective on how the industry will look in 10 to 15 years as a result of these trends. To that end, our eight key perspectives on the “2030 automotive revolution” are aimed at providing scenarios concerning what kind of changes are coming and how they will affect traditional vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, potential new players, regulators, consumers, markets, and the automotive value chain.

This study aims to make the imminent changes more tangible. The forecasts should thus be interpreted as a projection of the most probable assumptions across all four trends, based on our current understanding. They are certainly not deterministic in nature but should help industry players better prepare for the uncertainty by discussing potential future states.

1. Driven by shared mobility, connectivity services, and feature upgrades, new business models could expand automotive revenue pools by about 30 percent, adding up to $1.5 trillion.

The automotive revenue pool will significantly increase and diversify toward on-demand mobility services and data-driven services. This could create up to $1.5 trillion—or 30 percent more—in additional revenue potential in 2030, compared with about $5.2 trillion from traditional car sales and aftermarket products/services, up by 50 percent from about $3.5 trillion in 2015 (Exhibit 1).

Connectivity, and later autonomous technology, will increasingly allow the car to become a platform for drivers and passengers to use their time in transit to consume novel forms of media and services or dedicate the freed-up time to other personal activities. The increasing speed of innovation, especially in software-based systems, will require cars to be upgradable. As shared mobility solutions with shorter life cycles will become more common, consumers will be constantly aware of technological advances, which will further increase demand for upgradability in privately used cars as well.

2. Despite a shift toward shared mobility, vehicle unit sales will continue to grow, but likely at a lower rate of about 2 percent per year.

Overall global car sales will continue to grow, but the annual growth rate is expected to drop from the 3.6 percent over the last five years to around 2 percent by 2030. This drop will be largely driven by macroeconomic factors and the rise of new mobility services such as car sharing and e-hailing.

A detailed analysis suggests that dense areas with a large, established vehicle base are fertile ground for these new mobility services, and many cities and suburbs of Europe and North America fit this profile. New mobility services may result in a decline of private-vehicle sales, but this decline is likely to be offset by increased sales in shared vehicles that need to be replaced more often due to higher utilization and related wear and tear.

The remaining driver of growth in global car sales is the overall positive macroeconomic development, including the rise of the global consumer middle class. With established markets slowing in growth, however, growth will continue to rely on emerging economies, particularly China, while product-mix differences will explain different development of revenues.

3. Consumer mobility behavior is changing, leading to up to one out of ten cars sold in 2030 potentially being a shared vehicle and the subsequent rise of a market for fit-for-purpose mobility solutions.

Changing consumer preferences, tightening regulation, and technological breakthroughs add up to a fundamental shift in individual mobility behavior. Individuals increasingly use multiple modes of transportation to complete their journey; goods and services are delivered to rather than fetched by consumers. As a result, the traditional business model of car sales will be complemented by a range of diverse, on-demand mobility solutions, especially in dense urban environments that proactively discourage private-car use.

Consumers today use their cars as all-purpose vehicles, whether they are commuting alone to work or taking the whole family to the beach. In the future, they may want the flexibility to choose the best solution for a specific purpose, on demand and via their smartphones. We already see early signs that the importance of private-car ownership is declining: in the United States, for example, the share of young people (16 to 24 years) who hold a driver’s license dropped from 76 percent in 2000 to 71 percent in 2013, while there has been over 30 percent annual growth in car-sharing members in North America and Germany over the last five years.

Consumers’ new habit of using tailored solutions for each purpose will lead to new segments of specialized vehicles designed for very specific needs. For example, the market for a car specifically built for e-hailing services—that is, a car designed for high utilization, robustness, additional mileage, and passenger comfort—would already be millions of units today, and this is just the beginning.

As a result of this shift to diverse mobility solutions, up to one out of ten new cars sold in 2030 may likely be a shared vehicle, which could reduce sales of private-use vehicles. This would mean that more than 30 percent of miles driven in new cars sold could be from shared mobility. On this trajectory, one out of three new cars sold could potentially be a shared vehicle as soon as 2050.

4. City type will replace country or region as the most relevant segmentation dimension that determines mobility behavior and, thus, the speed and scope of the automotive revolution.

Understanding where future business opportunities lie requires a more granular view of mobility markets than ever before. Specifically, it is necessary to segment these markets by city types based primarily on their population density, economic development, and prosperity. Across those segments, consumer preferences, policy and regulation, and the availability and price of new business models will strongly diverge. In megacities such as London, for example, car ownership is already becoming a burden for many, due to congestion fees, a lack of parking, traffic jams, et cetera. By contrast, in rural areas such as the state of Iowa in the United States, private-car usage will remain the preferred means of transport by far.

The type of city will thus become the key indicator for mobility behavior, replacing the traditional regional perspective on the mobility market. By 2030, the car market in New York will likely have much more in common with the market in Shanghai than with that of Kansas.

5. Once technological and regulatory issues have been resolved, up to 15 percent of new cars sold in 2030 could be fully autonomous.

Fully autonomous vehicles are unlikely to be commercially available before 2020. Meanwhile, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) will play a crucial role in preparing regulators, consumers, and corporations for the medium-term reality of cars taking over control from drivers.

The market introduction of ADAS has shown that the primary challenges impeding faster market penetration are pricing, consumer understanding, and safety/security issues. Regarding technological readiness, tech players and start-ups will likely also play an important role in the development of autonomous vehicles. Regulation and consumer acceptance may represent additional hurdles for autonomous vehicles. However, once these challenges are addressed, autonomous vehicles will offer tremendous value for consumers (for example, the ability to work while commuting, or the convenience of using social media or watching movies while traveling).

A progressive scenario would see fully autonomous cars accounting for up to 15 percent of passenger vehicles sold worldwide in 2030 (Exhibit 2).

6. Electrified vehicles are becoming viable and competitive; however, the speed of their adoption will vary strongly at the local level.

Stricter emission regulations, lower battery costs, more widely available charging infrastructure, and increasing consumer acceptance will create new and strong momentum for penetration of electrified vehicles (hybrid, plug-in, battery electric, and fuel cell) in the coming years. The speed of adoption will be determined by the interaction of consumer pull (partially driven by total cost of ownership) and regulatory push, which will vary strongly at the regional and local level.

In 2030, the share of electrified vehicles could range from 10 percent to 50 percent of new-vehicle sales. Adoption rates will be highest in developed dense cities with strict emission regulations and consumer incentives (tax breaks, special parking and driving privileges, discounted electricity pricing, et cetera). Sales penetration will be slower in small towns and rural areas with lower levels of charging infrastructure and higher dependency on driving range.

Through continuous improvements in battery technology and cost, those local differences will become less pronounced, and electrified vehicles are expected to gain more and more market share from conventional vehicles. With battery costs potentially decreasing to $150 to $200 per kilowatt-hour over the next decade, electrified vehicles will achieve cost competitiveness with conventional vehicles, creating the most significant catalyst for market penetration. At the same time, it is important to note that electrified vehicles include a large portion of hybrid electrics, which means that even beyond 2030, the internal-combustion engine will remain very relevant.

7. Within a more complex and diversified mobility-industry landscape, incumbent players will be forced to compete simultaneously on multiple fronts and cooperate with competitors.

While other industries, such as telecommunications or mobile phones/handsets, have already been disrupted, the automotive industry has seen very little change and consolidation so far. For example, only two new players have appeared on the list of the top-15 automotive original-equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the last 15 years, compared with ten new players in the handset industry.

A paradigm shift to mobility as a service, along with new entrants, will inevitably force traditional car manufacturers to compete on multiple fronts. Mobility providers (Uber, for example), tech giants (such as Apple, Google), and specialty OEMs (Tesla, for instance) increase the complexity of the competitive landscape. Traditional automotive players that are under continuous pressure to reduce costs, improve fuel efficiency, reduce emissions, and become more capital-efficient will feel the squeeze, likely leading to shifting market positions in the evolving automotive and mobility industries, potentially leading to consolidation or new forms of partnerships among incumbent players.

In another game-changing development, software competence is increasingly becoming one of the most important differentiating factors for the industry, for various domain areas, including ADAS/active safety, connectivity, and infotainment. Further on, as cars are increasingly integrated into the connected world, automakers will have no choice but to participate in the new mobility ecosystems that emerge as a result of technological and consumer trends.

Automotive & Assembly